A satellite image of the Oct. 26 storm.
Dr. Jeff Masters, the co-founder of the Weather Underground website is the voice of climate sanity in the meteorologist world. He has consistently noted, as he did in this post from last March, how the models used by climate scientists make predictions about how winter storms are going to change in a warming world that are deeply consistent with what we are seeing unfold before us:
General Circulation Models (GCMs) like the ones used in the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report do a very good job simulating how winter storms behave in the current climate, and we can run simulations of the atmosphere with extra greenhouse gases to see how winter storms will behave in the future. The results are very interesting. Global warming is expected to warm the poles more than the equatorial regions. This reduces the difference in temperature between the pole and Equator. Since winter storms form in response to the atmosphere’s need to transport heat from the Equator to the poles, this reduced temperature difference reduces the need for winter storms, and thus the models predict fewer storms will form. However, since a warmer world increases the amount of evaporation from the surface and puts more moisture in the air, these future storms drop more precipitation. During the process of creating that precipitation, the water vapor in the storm must condense into liquid or frozen water, liberating “latent heat”–the extra heat that was originally added to the water vapor to evaporate it in the first place. This latent heat intensifies the winter storm, lowering the central pressure and making the winds increase. So, the modeling studies predict a future with fewer total winter storms, but a greater number of intense storms. These intense storms will have more lift, and will thus tend to drop more precipitation–including snow, when we get areas of strong lift in the -15°C preferred snowflake formation region.
Masters referenced these observations in a recent post about the unprecedented storm (which some are calling a “landicane“) that ripped across the Continental United States. As Masters notes:
We’ve now had two remarkable extratropical storms this year in the U.S. that have smashed all-time low pressure records across a large portion of the country. Is this a sign that these type of storms may be getting stronger? Well, there is evidence that wintertime extratropical storms have grown in intensity in the Pacific, Arctic, and Great Lakes in recent decades.
And as always, Masters is tracking storms in the parts of the world more accustomed to this kind of activity. However, he notes that it is “unprecedented” to have a hurricane of the magnitude of Tomas appear this late in the season.
The climate is changing. The effects are real. The need for action is urgent – and the zombie armies of climate denial are approaching.
Anthony W. Robinson
I found this climate info very interesting!
Linda Gifford
How do we make the leaders of our world realize that this problem of Global Warming is real. We cannot just sit back and think that what is happening with our weather is not human induced. Please tell us what to do to bring this problem to the forefront. As an individual I feel helpless when it comes to helping our world be a better place for our children.
cornelia walsh
I agree with Linda .. I feel so powerless to help people understand the seriousness of climate change and the need to protect our earth for all future generations, not just of humans, but animals as well. We borrow the earth, it is not ours to use up and destroy. We MUST become protectors and live in harmony with the resources still available. How can we help.. ??
scott
it happend before and will again! stop trying to control weather and trying to scare people so goverment can steal more of your money. learn to live.
Dale
Has the planet not been warming since the last Ice Age. So why would anyone think that it would not continue to warm? Get a grip people. This is a normal cycle.
pat
i find it amazing that people believe there’s a god but global warming is beyond their comprehension.
David
You know this is tantamount of what is going on in the world today for the average person, i.e. you read an article on global warming published by a Harvard educated professor and it’s ,get your affairs in order, the end is near, your children are doomed, global warming will destroy the earth as we know it.
Turn the page and guess what, another Harvard educated Professors published article stating that global warming is a natural aging process of the earth, it is a cycle, and the cycle is predictable and duplicated in models across the world in weather laboratories.
Both articles were not just the opinion of your typical man on the street, these are Harvard educated Professors, who in their quest, took advantage of the most up to date diagnostic scientific tools available, and countless hours of research and documentation.
So I ask the question; who do you believe; should we error on the side of caution, or gamble with the world’s future?
I for one say caution is the route to take, because if we’re wrong the consequences are devastating
E
Well, if we don’t take of our home (earth) now our kids will inherit a crappy place to live, and their kids as well. We my become their grandkids. Ever thought of karma and reincarnation/rebirth? We are matter and all matter changes form. Lets get into the science folks. Denial does not reduce the conflict and consequences of inaction. Earth has a strong fever and we reduce it quickly.
Chaplain Ron
I am always amazed how since the start of time people have attempted to control the weather, by rain dances or worshiping rain gods , and as the bible states men, become more educated only to become fools. Now the worship the gods of the Government, that have found a way to control the people. The weather on the earth has been changing since God created it ,and will keep changing till the end comes. Wise men still seek Him, find Him wail He may be found.
Scotty
Man is nothing more than the universe becoming aware of itself. The only thing that separates us from the other forms of life in the universe is our uniquely human characteristic of greed. Greed blinds us and prevents us from doing the right things. Greed underlies almost every disaster man has brought on themselves and has surely contributed to the changing weather patterns. Human stupidity and greed will wipe us off the face of the planet sooner or later be it by weather or another self-inflicted disaster. So if you’re one of the fools who believes it’s being controlled by some invented deity to explain what your ignorance can’t, you better get busy preying and those more enlightened will just live while they can, and do what they can to counter the effects of greed and stupidity before we commit global suicide and leave the next in line to deal with the so called “problems”, be it the whales or cock roaches.