It is a dangerous thing to ignore very smart people who are using rigorous methods of analyzing data. This is true when discussing elections, it is even more true when it comes to thinking about the earth’s climate.

Consider the case of Nate Silver, whose computer forecasting tools have been making spookily accurate predictions about the outcome of elections over the last five years. Silver’s models, which uses public opinion polls, with adjustments for various effects, over the last year showed a presidential election that was very stable with a consistent reality of the incumbent President maintaining a small but clear lead on the national level and a slightly larger but even more consistent lead in key “swing states.” The bottom line prediction of the model was a moderate (60%) to high (92%) probability that the outcome would be the re-election of Barack Obama. He was, of course, impressively accurate.

And yet, leading up the election, Silver’s work was reviled by many – principally those who saw this quantitative approach as undermining their business of dispensing qualitative analysis of elections and, even more vehemently, by those simply could not accept the results of the modeling because they just couldn’t accept the re-election of the President as a potential likely outcome. This phenomenon of folks in denial projecting their own warping of science and analysis on to analysts and scientists who they disagree with is very familiar in the climate context.

For a very long time those who find the truth of global warming to be inconvenient have claimed, amongst other things, that climate science is skewed and political, accusing scientists of suffering from confirmation bias and leaning towards evidence and models that confirmed their political beliefs. Dark, and totally unsubstantiated, accusations are made about how it is “convenient” that the scientist are reaching conclusions that line up with expectations of agencies providing funding. But, of course, these same climate change deniers are the greatest case study of confirmation bias that one could ever find.

So who is the climate equivalent of Nate Silver? Who is a clearly disinterested and objective outside observer coming in from a different world, like Nate Silver came to politics from sports forecasting, and employing sophisticated analytical tools imported from another context?

I would suggest the prudent accountants at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) are making a very strong audition for that role given their Carbon Disclosure Project and very specifically with the issuance just last week of a sobering analysis: PwC Low Carbon Economy Index 2012: Too late for two degrees?

That analysis makes it very clear that drastic action, both in terms of emissions reduction and in reshaping our infrastructure and society, is needed if we are going to avert total disaster. As a partner at PwC said in a press release about the report, “This isn’t about shock tactics, it’s simple maths. We’re heading into uncharted territory for the scale of transformation and technical innovations required. Whatever the scenario, or the response, business as usual is not an option.” Indeed, the levels of global warming pollution that PwC tells us will flow from “business as usual” matches up with the levels that scientists tell us will make the land on which half of humanity resides uninhabitable.

PwC is not alone in delivering this message of cold, sober quantitative analysis delivering hard (and frankly terrifying) conclusions about our climate trajectory.  Lord Nicholas Stern has delivered a similar and powerful message, most famously as an adviser to the British Government. In that role, in 2006, he authored a very influential report starkly demonstrating that the cost of failing to address global warming far outstrips the cost of acting to reducing the emissions that are the source of so much of the problem.

The good news (and it yes, I am following apocalyptic statements with good news) is that here in New England the message of these number crunchers is being heard, and bits of action, designed to respond to this threat, are being seen.  The Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act provides a binding legal mandate that the Commonwealth of Massachusetts address the causes and effects of global warming pollution.  And, the changes in the complexion of state legislatures across the region (detailed on this blog by the CLF state office directors) suggest that we may be able to make more progress on this front across New England. Finally, the rise of clean energy champions in our congressional delegation (notably the election of former wind energy developer Angus King as a Senator from Maine) means that our representatives will continue to rise up as voices of sanity on energy and climate on the national stage – and sanity is what is needed if we are going to heed the message our number crunchers are sending us.

Climate Scientist Katherine Hayhoe is an evangelical Christian who sees her work and the need to protect the earth as deeply consistent with her faith.

Read all about her at Climate Central.  Buy her book, co-written with her husband who, like Dr. Hayhoe, is a Professor at Texas Tech. He is also the Pastor of their church.

Given the latest science showing that the models that predict the exact march of global warming appear to be overly conservative and underestimating the effects of the warming in progress and the strong likelihood that we are about to cross an irrevocable tipping point that commits the planet to deeply damaging warming it is not crazy to suggest that we need science, prayer and action.

The need for action and steps to be taken to address this crisis is not abstract.  The latest massive compilation of science shows the very real effects that global warming is having all around us and will increasingly inflict upon us.  The need to build resilient communities that can survive (and even thrive) in these conditions is very real.  However, it is equally vital that we reduce the emissions that are disrupting the climate.  This means building renewable energy of many sizes and types, it means making our society and economy more efficient, properly planning and building our communities and providing and funding safe and clean transit and spreading and truly implementing efforts like the Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act and the greenhouse gas regulations being slowly rolled out by the Federal government.

The size, scale and nature of the crisis we face must spur all of us, whether we are motivated by a purely secular moral motivation to watch out for our fellow humans and/or other planetary passengers or the religious mission that guides someone like Dr. Hayhoe, to act. Because if we don’t we truly don’t have a prayer.

Quick update on subject of a blog post the other day.

Discovery Channel, in an article posted on Treehugger (which discloses it is owned by Discovery Communications, the parent of Discovery Channel) claims that the climate change content in the US version of Frozen Planet will be the same as in the BBC version – that they will simply be re-editing the show to fit into six episodes and with an American accented narrator.  Apparently our ears are not sophisticated enough to appreciate the dulcet tones of Sir David Attenborough.

And as to the climate issue, as Treehugger concludes, the proof will come when the show airs . . .

The good news: cable TV outlet the Discovery Channel co-produced, with the BBC,  a nature series about the polar regions entitled Frozen Planet working with award winning director David Attenborough.   Discovery has proudly announced their co-ownership of the series, which is airing in Britain now (and apparently is quite hit) and will be shown in the US on Discovery in 2012.

The bad news: Discovery (who I admit has gotten some free publicity from us for their Shark Week) has decided to not show the final episode in the series that presents the threats, particularly in the form of global warming, that man poses to the polar environment. In the words of an incredulous headline of a newspaper article in Britain’s Daily Mail: “Climate change episode of Frozen Planet won’t be shown in the U.S. as viewers don’t believe in global warming.”

Protecting our climate will require systematic action across our society and economy.  As President Obama just noted in remarks in Australia it will be, “a tough slog, particularly at a time  when a lot of economies are struggling.”  But it is a transition that (as he went on to say) can build up jobs and the economy and “that, over the long term, can be beneficial.”

But if we don’t talk about the problem and don’t show the impacts of global warming, let alone the solutions what are the chances of our nation and the world taking on and solving this most fundamental of problems?

Ever wondered what your own carbon footprint looks like? Calculate it here.

Once you’ve done that, make plans to come see Carbon Nation on October 25 at 6:00 PM at the Metcalf Auditorium in the Chace Center at RISD. Carbon Nation stands on the side of pioneers who want to find Solutions…who want to stop complaining and Take Action. Carbon Nation is an optimistic, solutions-based, non-preachy, non-partisan film that shows tackling climate change boosts the economy, increases national & energy security and promotes health & a clean environment.

What more could you ask for? Come and see.

Buy your tickets online today! Time is running out!

Me neither. That’s why I’m going to see Carbon Nation on October 25, 2010 at the Metcalf Auditorium at RISD. Details are here on how to get your tickets.

Since its Premiere at The Washington Environmental Film Festival on March 28^th Carbon Nation has had over 70 screenings and is headed for a major NYC screening on January 14, 2011. This film offers a glimpse to solutions rather than focusing on the problem. But don’t just take my word for it. Steve Katona, Director of Ocean Health for Conservation International, just wrote after viewing the film:

“Carbon Nation is terrific!  It is positive, solutions-based and packed with information and uplifting examples.  It leaves the viewer with no doubt that we can stabilize atmospheric carbon levels, and that we already know how to do it.  The film celebrates the contributions of leaders, entrepreneurs, businesses and ordinary citizens of all kinds whose efforts point the way to success.  Equally important, the film demonstrates that such efforts not only benefit natural environments, but also improve human well-being, create jobs and build opportunities for a vibrant economic future. I think the film is going to make a huge improvement to public attitudes and, I hope, government attitudes also.”

See you there!

Yes! On Monday October, 25, 2010 you’re invited to the Providence premiere of Carbon Nation, a documentary about climate solutions. Filmmaker Peter Byck has taken a complex and polarizing topic and made it apolitical, accessible, and entertaining. You’ll meet (to name a few):

• A rancher bringing new life to a Texas town through wind farming.
• Government employees working to make the military more energy efficient.
• Farmers using innovative, low-carbon growing methods.

The screening, presented by the Conservation Law Foundation and ClimateCounts.org, will be followed by a discussion with director Peter Byck and a panel of environmental pundits and climate policy experts. A reception with light refreshments will follow the discussion.

The details:

Screening of Carbon Nation, a film about climate solutions
Monday, October 25
6 p.m.
RISD Metcalf Auditorium at the Chace Center
20 N. Main Street
Providence, RI

Tickets are $20 online for general admission and $5 online for students.* There will be a $5 premium for purchasing tickets at the door, so buy your tickets online today!

You won’t want to miss this! Tell a friend (or two) and come enjoy an evening that celebrates solutions, inspiration, and action.