It is a dangerous thing to ignore very smart people who are using rigorous methods of analyzing data. This is true when discussing elections, it is even more true when it comes to thinking about the earth’s climate.

Consider the case of Nate Silver, whose computer forecasting tools have been making spookily accurate predictions about the outcome of elections over the last five years. Silver’s models, which uses public opinion polls, with adjustments for various effects, over the last year showed a presidential election that was very stable with a consistent reality of the incumbent President maintaining a small but clear lead on the national level and a slightly larger but even more consistent lead in key “swing states.” The bottom line prediction of the model was a moderate (60%) to high (92%) probability that the outcome would be the re-election of Barack Obama. He was, of course, impressively accurate.

And yet, leading up the election, Silver’s work was reviled by many – principally those who saw this quantitative approach as undermining their business of dispensing qualitative analysis of elections and, even more vehemently, by those simply could not accept the results of the modeling because they just couldn’t accept the re-election of the President as a potential likely outcome. This phenomenon of folks in denial projecting their own warping of science and analysis on to analysts and scientists who they disagree with is very familiar in the climate context.

For a very long time those who find the truth of global warming to be inconvenient have claimed, amongst other things, that climate science is skewed and political, accusing scientists of suffering from confirmation bias and leaning towards evidence and models that confirmed their political beliefs. Dark, and totally unsubstantiated, accusations are made about how it is “convenient” that the scientist are reaching conclusions that line up with expectations of agencies providing funding. But, of course, these same climate change deniers are the greatest case study of confirmation bias that one could ever find.

So who is the climate equivalent of Nate Silver? Who is a clearly disinterested and objective outside observer coming in from a different world, like Nate Silver came to politics from sports forecasting, and employing sophisticated analytical tools imported from another context?

I would suggest the prudent accountants at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) are making a very strong audition for that role given their Carbon Disclosure Project and very specifically with the issuance just last week of a sobering analysis: PwC Low Carbon Economy Index 2012: Too late for two degrees?

That analysis makes it very clear that drastic action, both in terms of emissions reduction and in reshaping our infrastructure and society, is needed if we are going to avert total disaster. As a partner at PwC said in a press release about the report, “This isn’t about shock tactics, it’s simple maths. We’re heading into uncharted territory for the scale of transformation and technical innovations required. Whatever the scenario, or the response, business as usual is not an option.” Indeed, the levels of global warming pollution that PwC tells us will flow from “business as usual” matches up with the levels that scientists tell us will make the land on which half of humanity resides uninhabitable.

PwC is not alone in delivering this message of cold, sober quantitative analysis delivering hard (and frankly terrifying) conclusions about our climate trajectory.  Lord Nicholas Stern has delivered a similar and powerful message, most famously as an adviser to the British Government. In that role, in 2006, he authored a very influential report starkly demonstrating that the cost of failing to address global warming far outstrips the cost of acting to reducing the emissions that are the source of so much of the problem.

The good news (and it yes, I am following apocalyptic statements with good news) is that here in New England the message of these number crunchers is being heard, and bits of action, designed to respond to this threat, are being seen.  The Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act provides a binding legal mandate that the Commonwealth of Massachusetts address the causes and effects of global warming pollution.  And, the changes in the complexion of state legislatures across the region (detailed on this blog by the CLF state office directors) suggest that we may be able to make more progress on this front across New England. Finally, the rise of clean energy champions in our congressional delegation (notably the election of former wind energy developer Angus King as a Senator from Maine) means that our representatives will continue to rise up as voices of sanity on energy and climate on the national stage – and sanity is what is needed if we are going to heed the message our number crunchers are sending us.

Massachusetts’ commitment to a new clean energy economy has been welcome news both economically and environmentally. There’s an awful lot to like about reversing the export of billions of dollars sent outside Massachusetts and the country each year to buy dirty fossil fuel energy that harms our health, increases our health care expenses and has substantial impacts on our environment, economy, jobs and national security. No question, there’s tremendous potential for investing in clean homegrown energy right here in Massachusetts, in a win for the economy and the environment. But if we’re truly going to be successful in building a new clean energy economy, we need to pay attention to the “clean” element of that equation. And if our burgeoning clean energy revolution is to be successful, it absolutely cannot leave behind the Massachusetts communities that long have borne the brunt of our dependence on dirty energy.

A true clean energy economy ought to mean cleaner air for everyone. It’s a ‘no-brainah’ (as they say in these parts), right?  Apparently Massachusetts DEP doesn’t think so. In a deeply troubling decision issued on September 11, Massachusetts DEP Commissioner Ken Kimmell upheld an air pollution permit for a 35 Megawatt (MW) wood-burning power plant that is proposed to be built at Palmer Paving, smack in the midst of a state and federally designated environmental justice community in Springfield. In taking this action, DEP gave the green light to a facility that will annually release dozens of tons of damaging fine particulates and hazardous air pollutants, as well as hundreds of thousands of tons of harmful global warming pollution, in an area documented by the MA Department of Public Health to have significantly worse air quality and markedly higher rates of respiratory illness than the state average. What’s up with that?!  Has the DEP Commissioner already forgotten his own “tweets” this summer that alerted the public to unhealthy air quality in central Massachusetts, even before the PRE power plant adds new air pollution to the mix?

While we’re pleased that DEP Commissioner Kimmell reversed the agency’s earlier findings on standing, allowing CLF, Arise for Social Justice, Toxics Action Center and our “Ten Residents Group” partners to challenge Palmer Renewable Energy’s (PRE) air permit, the decision to uphold the permit reflects a sorry abdication of DEP’s obligation to protect against damaging air pollution.  Among other troubling flaws:

•  DEP’s Final Decision lays out burdensome new requirements for “Ten Citizens” groups seeking to participate in air permitting proceedings, forcing concerned residents to invoke trial-like proceedings at the public comment stage to protect their rights even before DEP’s air permitting decisions are known;

• In upholding the PRE air pollution permit, DEP relies on highly questionable testimony of the power plant developer’s expert witness whose unorthodox views on the health impacts of fine particulate matter were discredited recently by at least one federal court on the basis that the witness’ unconventional views cast him as an outlier in his field;

• Despite the hundreds of thousands of tons of greenhouse gas emissions the PRE wood-burning power plant would release each year, DEP’s Final Decision explicitly – and erroneously – suggests that there is an open question regarding whether the decision must comply with the state’s Global Warming Solutions Act, even though the Act’s language is unequivocally clear that DEP must comply.

At the end of the day, I’m reminded of the sage words of a 10 year old girl with asthma who hand-wrote her pithy letter to DEP opposing the PRE power plant: “We deserve clean air… It’s not fair!!!!” Well said.

So, we will work to hold DEP accountable for reducing, not increasing, air pollution and respecting the right to meaningful public participation. And we will continue to cheer the local officials in Springfield who are refusing to allow the PRE power plant to cut corners and have revoked all local permits for project.

This spring, clean energy is sprouting up all over Massachusetts. The Commonwealth is now in a terrific position to further solidify its promising trajectory and show the nation how it’s done – so long as we take a few critical actions.

By necessity, CLF and others continue to play serious defense. This includes directly confronting the region’s dirty and uneconomic coal plants, and partnering with local advocates to fend off new power generation facilities that would increase air pollution. This work continues to be an essential part of what we do.

But equally important is our work to advance clean energy solutions. This work is about “keeping the lights on” while reducing the pollution that contributes to climate change and worsens asthma attacks and other health impacts. In the wake of some energizing recent events, let’s take a moment to reflect on the progress we’re making in Massachusetts on the clean energy solutions side of the equation and what we need to do to keep it up.

Governor Patrick Fires Up the Troops

In a rousing and inspired clean energy address before over 200 clean energy leaders last week, Governor Patrick touted Massachusetts’s long list of recent clean energy achievements. It’s an impressive list, including a suite of forward-looking clean energy laws enacted in 2008: the aptly named MA Green Communities Act, Global Warming Solutions Act, and Green Jobs Act. These policies not only are reducing power plant pollution, they also helped spur the clean energy sector to become one of the few bright spots in the recent recession – with more than 60,000 new clean energy jobs in MA alone. At a time when families are struggling, this is indisputably good news.

Particularly inspiring was the Governor’s connecting of clean energy dots: as he noted, we can replace all of Massachusetts’ remaining dirty and uneconomic coal-fired power plants with clean offshore wind. This isn’t pie-in-the-sky futuristic thinking. We already have the tools we need to get the job done. With further contributions from other renewable energy resources, we can redirect the billions of dirty fossil fuel dollars Massachusetts currently sends out of state and instead re-power the Commonwealth with clean alternatives that promote local jobs and improve public health.

Reinforcing that everyone can and should be part of the solution, Boston Bruin Andrew Ference joined the Governor in touting the Massachusetts green revolution. Ference leads by example: he conserves energy by riding a bike, walking or taking the “T” to get around, recycling and composting. All of these simple and healthy alternatives reduce energy waste and associated energy impacts. And the Commonwealth must continue to bring the same dedication and ferocity to the fight for clean energy as Ference does to the rink.

Toughest environmentalist around Andrew Ference May 30, 2012

Cape Wind Hearings Reflect Major Shift

Further evidence of the clean energy revolution in Massachusetts came through a series of Department of Public Utilities (DPU) public hearings in May. The hearings provided opportunities for the public to comment on a 15-year contract for the sale of some of the Cape Wind offshore wind energy project’s output to NSTAR electric. Even at the hearing on Cape Cod, where some opposition long has simmered, Cape Wind supporters vastly outnumbered opponents. The shift more strongly in favor of clean energy was palpable. Dozens of people lined up, often waiting for hours to say that they are willing to pay a modest premium for clean energy from Cape Wind.

One notable dynamic that was not reflected in media reports: an overwhelming number of young people and parents spoke in support of purchasing Cape Wind’s clean power. It’s about choosing a thriving future.

Massachusetts is on a roll. But we cannot afford to stall out just as we’re on the crest of the clean energy wave. Here’s what we need to do now:

• Enact MA Green Communities Act Part II. The 2008 MA Green Communities Act has been a resounding success, propelling Massachusetts to the head of the nation with respect to reducing energy waste, saving Massachusetts hundreds of millions of dollars (and counting), and giving a much-needed boost to the deployment of clean, locally available renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. But some of the Act’s modest programs soon will be maxed out. Fortunately, the MA Senate recently took action through Senate Bill 2214 to build upon the 2008 Act’s key renewable energy programs. Now, we look to the MA House of Representatives to take action to advance these key clean energy measures to the Governor’s desk by July 31.

• Fully implement the Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act, including the adoption of regulations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The 2008 Global Warming Solutions Act requires Massachusetts DEP to adopt regulations to keep Massachusetts on track to meet its clean energy and climate objectives. Among other advantages, such regulations will provide clear signals to the burgeoning market for clean energy alternatives, and will ensure that global warming pollution is reduced gradually over time. Despite the law’s clear mandate, DEP blew the January 1, 2012 deadline for adopting these critically important regulations. To ensure MA stays on track to meet its 2020 target, it’s essential that DEP take action to adopt smart, effective regulations without further delay.

• Get Cape Wind over the finish wire. More than a decade in the permitting and environmental review process, this project is primed to go forward and begin delivering huge amounts of clean power. CLF will continue to advocate before the Massachusetts DPU for approval of a 15-year contract for Cape Wind to deliver 27.5% of its output to NSTAR Electric customers.

There’s no question that Massachusetts has made tremendous progress on clean energy in the past few years. But as the Governor wisely noted in his clean energy address last week, “winners don’t stand still.” So, Massachusetts, let’s keep moving!

Recently the Governor of Massachusetts gave a very inspiring speech describing both the affirmative steps that have been taken to address the challenge of building a thriving and clean economy in the Bay State and the challenges that still lie ahead.

The occasion was an event organized by the New England Clean Energy Council and hosted by high-tech startup FastCAP Systems and featured an array of interesting speakers leading up to Governor Patrick including a young woman who is the sole female crew chief at local energy efficiency provider Next Step Living, the Town Administrator of Scituate MA discussing their successful efforts to build a wind turbine and the toughest of environmentalists, Andrew Ference of the Boston Bruins.

The toughest environmentalist around: Boston Bruin Andrew Ference, speaking before Gov. Patrick, May 30, 2012

Governor Patrick, as has been reported, used the occasion to respond to criticism of the energy policy that his administration, and the Federal government, have been pursuing:

Our strategy of fostering a clean tech industry is sometimes derided as “picking winners and losers.” In fact government is doing what it is supposed to do: helping the state make the most of our competitive advantages. Investing in innovation, education and infrastructure. Putting policies in place that encourage private investment to meet our shared needs, creating jobs and leaving the Commonwealth better than we found it. And as I said, it’s what Americans have always done to shape our energy future.

 And by the way, let me tell you that I have heard enough about Evergreen – and for that matter about Solyndra. We are not always going to score. But we are never going to score if we don’t get in the game. One company that comes up short hardly discredits an initiative that has spawned 5,000 thriving companies and nearly 70,000 jobs and counting. Critics would do well to remember that I used to work in the oil industry, an industry that frequently drills dry wells. When the critics are ready to talk about the massive subsidies for Big Oil even when they drill dry wells, then I am ready to have a serious conversation about the tiny subsidies we use to foster a new, American-grown industry in alternative energy.

 Whether we like it or not, there are going to be winners and losers when it comes to clean energy in the 21st century. The winners will be those places that did everything they could to be ready for change, that created an atmosphere for and a culture of innovation.

But his message went beyond recognition of the growth in the clean energy sectors of the Massachusetts economy.  He also recognized “Winners don’t stand still, and if we want Massachusetts to stay a winner in clean energy, there is much more for us to do.”

His specific action items included putting solar panels on more rooftops and closed landfills, extending contracts to large-scale renewable energy developers,redoubling our commitment to squeezing every bit of efficiency out of our energy use and continuing our support of and participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, which he accurately described as “the single most successful cap and trade market in the country.”

All laudable goals, which he tied to moving forward a good energy bill in the Massachusetts legislature.

The Governor is right in taking pride in what has been accomplished in Massachusetts, most especially the ramp up in solar energy generation and energy efficiency. He is also correct in seeing these successes as a good starting point for even more action – and CLF as an advocacy organization is intently focused on this question of “what is next”, an attitude that perhaps led to the Governor’s public characterization (in response to a question at the same event) of CLF as an organization that shares his goals but “can be a bit of a pain in the ass . . . although that means you are doing your job.”

The next steps before us are clear, although not easy.  They range from appropriately funding the transit systems that provide clean and affordable transportation, to fostering urban “smart growth” to the essential (but wonky) energy policy details of expanded long term contracts for renewable energy projects across New England that supply energy to Massachusetts and expanded net metering and property tax relief for small renewable energy projects.

The time has come to have the courage of our convictions and the confidence to build on a winning record – recognizing that the struggle to build a thriving new clean energy economy that puts us a trajectory to meet the challenge of global warming will not be easy but that it is a challenge we can’t avoid, and that can bring our best.

Climate Scientist Katherine Hayhoe is an evangelical Christian who sees her work and the need to protect the earth as deeply consistent with her faith.

Read all about her at Climate Central.  Buy her book, co-written with her husband who, like Dr. Hayhoe, is a Professor at Texas Tech. He is also the Pastor of their church.

Given the latest science showing that the models that predict the exact march of global warming appear to be overly conservative and underestimating the effects of the warming in progress and the strong likelihood that we are about to cross an irrevocable tipping point that commits the planet to deeply damaging warming it is not crazy to suggest that we need science, prayer and action.

The need for action and steps to be taken to address this crisis is not abstract.  The latest massive compilation of science shows the very real effects that global warming is having all around us and will increasingly inflict upon us.  The need to build resilient communities that can survive (and even thrive) in these conditions is very real.  However, it is equally vital that we reduce the emissions that are disrupting the climate.  This means building renewable energy of many sizes and types, it means making our society and economy more efficient, properly planning and building our communities and providing and funding safe and clean transit and spreading and truly implementing efforts like the Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act and the greenhouse gas regulations being slowly rolled out by the Federal government.

The size, scale and nature of the crisis we face must spur all of us, whether we are motivated by a purely secular moral motivation to watch out for our fellow humans and/or other planetary passengers or the religious mission that guides someone like Dr. Hayhoe, to act. Because if we don’t we truly don’t have a prayer.

CLF has intervened in proceedings regarding the proposed merger of Northeast Utilities (NU) and NSTAR, which combined would create the third largest utility in the country and the largest in New England. CLF has intervened in the proceedings before the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (DPU) to ensure that the merger will only be allowed to go forward if it is “consistent with the public interest.”  This will require a thoughtful analysis of the merged utility’s long-term strategies for delivering energy while fully meeting the greenhouse gas emission reductions, renewable energy and energy efficiency requirements of the MA Global Warming Solutions Act and Green Communities Act.  It also will require a close look at the economic and environmental risks posed by the energy generation assets that would be owned by the merged utility.

One of CLF’s concerns is that NU subsidiary Public Service of New Hampshire (PSNH) owns and depends upon outdated, inefficient coal- and oil-fired power plants. These plants – which are obsolete and increasingly more expensive and less economic to operate – present risks and liabilities that would be spread to NSTAR’s ratepayers if the merger goes forward.  Another concern is that the merged utility might seek to weaken Massachusetts’ renewable energy standards, as suggested in some of the utilities’ public statements, allowing large hydropower to “flood” the market (pun intended!) and chill development of other renewable energy sources such as small wind and solar facilities.

Currently, the procedural schedule for the merger proceeding pending before the Massachusetts DPU has been suspended while the DPU considers whether to modernize the legal standard it will apply.  CLF and other parties have asked that the legal standard be adapted to account for changes in relevant laws, including the Global Warming Solutions Act and Green Communities Act.

Stay tuned as we await the DPU’s ruling and further action in the merger proceeding!

Grist, the environmental news website has a good piece about a book called Hot: Living Through the Next Fifty Years on Earth about “the 2 billion or so young people who will be stuck dealing with global warming and weirding for their entire lives — and who have to figure out how to do it sanely and humanely.”

As the author of the book Mark Hertsgaard notes in an article  in The Nation adapted from his book, “”My daughter and the rest of Generation Hot have been given a life sentence for a crime they didn’t commit.” Despite all scientific evidence to the contrary, there are still climate deniers out there who claim that global warming isn’t real–and we need a multifaceted, aggressive, solutions-oriented approach to overcome that hurdle and start cooling things down (so to speak). The latest paleoclimate data suggests that things are even worse than computer models have projected–up to two times worse, according to Climate Progress author Joe Romm.

States like Massachusetts are developing nation-leading strategies to reduce that life sentence, maybe even with a chance of parole. Most recently, last month, Governor Patrick announced the release of the Massachusetts Clean Energy and Climate Plan, which will reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. That’s the maximum target authorized by the 2008 Global Warming Solutions Act– a sign that the state is committed to combating climate change. A centerpiece of the Plan is Pay-As-You-Drive auto insurance (PAYD), a market-based, mileage-based solution that rewards drivers for driving less, and an initiative that CLF has been working on for over a decade.

But the work is far from done. Before we can implement measures that will lead New England to the clean energy future it deserves, we have to eradicate the outmoded, dirty sources of power that brought us here in the first place. CLF’s Coal-free New England campaign is designed to do just that, by pushing for the shutdown of the seven major coal-fired power plants in New England that are still in operation, and combined provide about 10 percent of the region’s power and 25 percent of the power in Massachusetts.

Generation Hot may be hot right now, but you know how trends work–they fade. And with a lot of hard work and ingenuity, Generation Hot will be on its way to becoming the most unfashionable generation yet.